Long-term Scenario Forecasts
[Update Jan 10th, 2021]
- Scenario 1: Moderate Vaccine Efficacy - Assumes 12.5 Million course in Jan and 25 million course per month thereafter, and efficacy 70% after two doses, 20% after one dose.
- Scenario 2: High Vaccine Efficacy + Hesitant Population - Assumes 12.5 Million course in Jan and 25 million course per month thereafter, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. Only 50% of those who are offered, accept the vaccine.
- Scenario 3: No Vaccine!
In all the above scenarios, we assume that the current precautions continue for three weeks after which distancing is reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
Under-reporting Scenarios: A key factor that affects long-term forecasts is the ratio of true cases to the reported cases. We show the scenarios for two values of this ratio: 1.1 and 1.5
