Long-term Scenario Forecasts

[Update Jan 10th, 2021]
The following scenarios have been simulated (motivated by the MIDAS Scenario Modeling Hub)
In all the above scenarios, we assume that the current precautions continue for three weeks after which distancing is reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
Under-reporting Scenarios: A key factor that affects long-term forecasts is the ratio of true cases to the reported cases. We show the scenarios for two values of this ratio: 1.1 and 1.5